Posted by admin on July 6, 2009 under Forex Market News | 
The US dollar should not be in the news as much this week as the focus for the American markets shifts to earnings. The dollar remained mostly range bound against the major currencies. The Euro/USD currency pair tested the top of its range of 1.42 at the beginning of the week and the bottom of the range around its support level of 1.3990. With the pair trading around the bottom of the range and technical indicators this pair is worth a look at having a long position.
The US dollar/Swiss Franc currency pair broke down to support of 1.072 early in the week. It bounced off that level and back up to just under 1.09 resistance level and hung around it late in the week. The rebound was in contrast to some of the technical indicators which makes it difficult to determine a short term trend. In addition it was rumored last week that the Swiss National was getting involved in the currency markets again and it is unclear the affect they may have on the Swiss Franc in relation to the US dollar and the Euro. The US Dollar/Swiss Franc currency pair is also having large trading swings around the exponential moving averages but should remain relatively range bound for the next week.Â
The British Pound/US Dollar currency pair in the beginning of July is trading between 1.63 and 1.67. The currency pair has been stuck in a pretty tight range for around a month. Some of the technical indicators are showing a trend that is moving to the downside and a breakdown of the support level at 1.6330 might be coming in the near future.
The US Dollar/Japanese Yen has been swinging wildly around its exponential moving averages and has had a very wide range over the past one to two weeks of 95.4 to 97. There is pretty clear short term resistance around the 97 level and support levels around 95.3.
The US Dollar/Canadian Dollar is still trading around the highs of its short term, several month range. Over the past 2 weeks the currency pair has bounce off of its near term resistance level of 1.165 two times. It has also hit its near term support level of 1.145 three times. After just bouncing off of the resistance level it should continue downward this week, however oil prices could either accelerate its move to the downside or make the pair rebound and breakout above its highs.
The Australian Dollar/US Dollar broke below short term support 0.7984, then traded straight down to 0.7900. While it rebounded back to 0.7958 the trend still looks bearish and overall downtrend should take it to 0.7785, the next support level. The Australian economy is also very dependant on natural resources like gold which was down nearly 1 percent last week.
Posted by admin on July 5, 2009 under Commodity & Futures News |
Oil bounced off its highs last week and started trading in a clear downtrend. Brent crude oil lost more than 3 percent to finish around 66.65 per barrel last week. This was below the 34 day moving average which is a key level for technical analysts. The 34 day moving average is integral in the Fibonacci sequence created by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. The sequence deals with the ratio between prices and is used by technicians to identify support and resistance levels. The commodity was hitting new eight months highs of around 73.50 per barrel near the end of June. It has since lost $7 a barrel and is expected to go lower over the next week. However continuing attacks on oil interests in Nigeria could push crude higher despite the technical signals. Either way we are still a far cry from the almost $150 a barrel we were seeing at this time last summer.
The economic data set to be released this week for commodities is on Wednesday the EIA Petroleum Status Report. The report is released weekly and contains data on petroleum inventories in the United States. Released a day later on Thursday is the EIA Natural Gas Report. Essentially the same report but for natural gas, detailing the inventory of natural gas stored underground in the US, also released weekly. Both reports are released by the Energy Information Administration and contain information for the week ending on the previous Friday.
Gold prices also fell from the top end of their recent trading levels. Even though on Friday the precious metal jumped more than two dollars a troy ounce it closed out the week at 932.80, over $9 lower than its high the previous week. Silver prices also followed suit dropping off of late June highs of more than $14, to end the trading week at around $13.40. While gold prices are expected by many to go significantly higher (some analysts say above $1000 per ounce in the near term and over $1200 an ounce by the end of the year), they seem to have paused and are trading in tandem with both falling oil prices and dropping equity prices.
Over the past few weeks oil and precious metals have been trading in concert with stock markets and for next week it is believed stock traders will be focused on earnings to drive any momentum. One company reporting earnings next week that both equity and commodity traders will be watching is Chevron. The consensus estimates on Wall Street for the energy drilling, refining, and generation company are for $1.18 profit per share versus $2.90 per share in the same period a year ago. They report on Thursday, July 9th after the bell. The stock (CVX) has been trading in the $65 to $70 dollar a share range over the past couple months, down from around $100 per share a year ago.
Tags: Chevron, commodity, CVX, economy, energy, gold, investing, oil, silver, Stocks, wall street