Stock Market Analysis Using Elliott Wave Principle

Posted by Finance Professional on August 17, 2011 under Stock Market News | Be the First to Comment

Thursday, August 11, 2011
Possible Short Term Wave Counts, S&P/Euro

Using my Elliott Wave analysis fundamentals can give us an edge on predicting future movement of the financial markets.

I’m posting the internals after the close today. My intraday post from this morning is below. Internals were extremely bullish however volume continues to pull back, now down below 2 billion NYSE shares today. Not encouraging for the bulls. With the new highs made today above my wave ((a)), it’s possible wave ((c)) of Minor wave 4 is already over. And the late day selloff into the close may be a hint of Minor wave 5 already beginning. We’ll see tomorrow. If wave 5 is already underway then it should be almost a straight line down tomorrow. If wave 4 up is still working itself out, then we’ll either get a sideways or up move tomorrow. Either way, my finger is on the “sell” button at every opportunity.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

Please read yesterday’s post below for bigger picture bottom line analysis. Basically I think a Minor wave 4 correction is underway that may take the form of a triangle (sideways move). Another possibility may be a simple zig-zag correction (ABC) as shown above. Tuesday’s big triple digit Dow rally looks impulsive, which could make it an ((a)) wave, then you have a clear 3 wave decline with yesterday’s selloff for wave ((b)), then this morning we have a clear impulsive rally again which is probably just a wave (i) within wave ((c)). If correct, the market should rip higher in wave (iii) of ((c)) fairly soon.

This is very very speculative on my part and just food for thought of something to watch out for the rest of the day and tomorrow. I’m not getting long at all, I’m merely tracking this count to determine when to get short on a rally. At any time this market can easily break down to new lows since it’s now in a clear and strong large downtrend. A sharp rip higher would put the above count on track.

This count only works on a closing basis so confidence in it low in that respect. Ignore the degree of trend since I’m unsure of it right now. I’m just sticking with EWP basics of 1-2-3-4-5 / a-b-c right now. On a closing basis it’s such a perfect EWP pattern, I just can’t ignore it. If correct, the euro should be headed sharply lower very soon. The above chart and count warrants at least a short term short position in my opinion since the risk/reward is so great with risk held at a new high on the day (stop 1.4293), or the start of the impulsive decline (stop 1.4400).

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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